ENWL036 - LV Predict 2 NIA

As energy systems evolve to meet net zero targets, it is widely expected that there will be greater electrification of energy (particularly heat and transport), which will have the effect of increasing both the level and volatility of demands across the network, with the greatest impacts expected on the LV system and in particular underground cables. It is expected that, without intervention, this increase in demand on the LV system will increase the degradation rate of cables, causing higher failure rates.

This research project will build on the physical and statistical modelling framework developed in the first LV Predict NIA project LV Predict researched physical models for determining the temperature within LV cables, the resulting stress cycles and physical damage the cables sustained and constructed statistical modelling methods to predict  this damage using commonly held LV data (such as customer numbers and cable types). LV Predict II will refine and extend the probabilistic framework by improving the skill and reliability of the model, expanding the model to other network assets, and applying the model in decision making.

Timescale:        September 2024 - March 2029

Project documents